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Old 10-10-2009, 12:04 PM   #29
lou
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
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I updated the figures in main thread, I'd insert these after each player respectively as small update commentary.

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Dan Uggla

Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 158 G, 550 AB, 80 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 150 K, .245/.360/.450 (.810)
ACTUAL Season Line - 158 G, 564 AB, 84 R, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 150 K, .243/.354/.459 (.813)

Not a bad projection from the summer at all there. Pretty much nailed it. So the short answer is, Uggla is as Uggla does. Uggla was 9th in offensive production among 2B in 2009. In 2008, he was 3rd. The rise of guys like Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, and Albertso Callaspo may help a small amount here by just creating more depth at the position for current production comparisons. Considering this, I still stand by all of the original math and Uggla is due for a big raise. I feel more comfortable slotting Uggla down slightly from the preliminary $8,000,000 estimate though. I think he will be between Utley ($7.5) and $8,000,000. Iím going to say $7.75 million, and itís going to be give or take $250,000 when all is said and done.

Jorge Cantu

Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 152 G, 600 AB, 70 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.340/.460 (.800)
ACTUAL Season Line - 149 G, 585 AB, 67 R, 16 HR, 100 RBI, .289/.345/.443 (..788)

He had a really weird end of the year with a huge jump in RBI, but relatively no slugging jump. Iíd say getting to that 100 RBI threshold was beneficial to him. Looking at the comps, I still find this very scary. The Casey Blake one is money, and so is everyone else on the planet being in that $5.5 million range. I am holding firm at the $6,000,000 projection, give or take $250,000.

Josh Johnson

Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 220 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 185k, 1.15 whip
ACTUAL Season Line - 209 IP, 15-5, 3.23 era, 191 K, 1.16 whip

Pretty much nailed this one too. I have nothing to change on Johnson. And I do not expect the Marlins to take him to arbitration. I forecast a 4-5 year contract, averaging $11 millionish per season.

Ricky Nolasco

Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 185 IP, 12-10, 4.50 era, 1.25 whip, 180 K
ACTUAL Season Line - 185 IP, 13-9, 5.06 era, 1.25 whip, 195 K

What a weird year. I mean that whip and strikeout rate is insane, but that era is phenomenally unlucky. This is a full run drop if he pumps this peripherals again next year. Anyways, this case is 100% going to arbitration as the Marlins are going to try and lowball that ERA, which they should, and Nolasco is going to say, but Iím awesome everywhere else. Each have strong arguments. Looking at the comparables, and really looking at that Bush one with the fantastic whip, but not good era, Ricky does slot above this with the win/loss, and the unbelievable amount of strikeouts. I think that era will prevent a huge gain, so I am going to move this down slightly just based on the 5+ era and say this goes to about $4,250,000 on the year. This is the hardest one to predict of the lot.

Cody

Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795)
Actual Season Line - 151 G, 559 AB, 73 R, 24 HR, 90 RBI, .270/.321/.469 (.790)

Pretty much as expected. This one is easy. I think he breaks $4, just like Nolasco, but really has no case besides this. Cody is a solid starting player. And thatís it. I think a $2 million raise is likely.


Hermida


Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740)
Actual Season Line - 129 G, 429 AB, 48 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, .259/.348/.392 (.740)

Not playing the last month really hurts the final season totals not getting those extra 20 games. But whatever. Iím systematically lowering this just because of the lack of playing time. Let's move him to $3 million, but I do suspect he'll get to $3.05, or $3.1, or something but I'm just doing this projections as a roundball and not trying to get an exact here.

Nunez/Lindstrom/Pinto

Some changes because of the allocation of saves, and Nunez really got a lot of them.

Nunez
Reasonable Projection Season Line - 75 G, 70 IP, 4-5, 15 S, 18 H, 3.50 era, 1.20 whip, 70 K
Actual Season Line - 75 G, 68.2 IP, 4-6, 26 S, 14 H, 4.06 era, 1.25 whip, 60 K

Lindstrom
50 G, 45 IP, 3-2, 20 S, 5 H, still really high era/whip
Actual Season Line - 54 G, 47.1 IP, 2-1, 15 S, 8 H, 5.89 era, 1.65 whip

Alright, so yikes. Letís start with Nunez. CJ Wilson is the good comp here, because he had a 6+ era and then the 24 saves. Prior career, CJ and Leo are very close to each other in amount of time played, so these things will add up. Give a little for inflation. Iím moving Leo Nunez to $2,000,000 next year. Leo got a lot more saves than I anticipated doing this over the summer.

As for Lindstrom, the initial low projection of him getting no more saves is probably what weíre looking at. Iíd say he is in the $1.5-1.75 range, and Iíll slot it down for $1.6 to just split the difference. His lack of getting into 20 more games/innings will hurt him a little, but he still had a really great years 1 and 2, and did rack up some saves in year 3.

No changes to Pinto.

Anibal

ACTUAL Season line - 16 G, 86 IP, 3.87 era, 4-8, 71 K, 1.51 whip

Anibal pitched A LOT more this year than I imagined. And wasnít totally horrible which is a bonus. Anibalís career line now stands at 50 games, 282 IP, 18-17, 3.86 era, 1.45 whip, and 207 K. Looking at the other injured starters comps, and a pretty good era year in 2009, I think the playing time and the performance is going to help him a little bit here. Johnson in 2008, came back and threw 87.1 innings at a 3.61 era. I mean Anibalís whip is crazy, and JJ was 7-1 compared to Anibalís 4-8, but hey. You can at least make a good faith argument Anibal was effective even if the bases were always loaded. Iím going to move Anibal to Mitreís level of $1.2 million. Nothing that really effects the bottom line, but he showed something this year and will probably be rewarded for it.
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